Welcome To Alexander Economic Views
E-sight September 28: Adopting a recession call
This morning, we released an updated Deloitte Quarterly Economic Forecast. Recent events have led us to adopt the view that a recession is coming in Canada. After posting strong growth in the first half of this year of above 3% annualized, a sharp slowdown is underway, and a contraction could start as early as the fourth…
E-sight September 7: Bank of Canada hikes 75 basis points and signals more to come
The Bank of Canada delivered yet another dramatically large interest rate hike at today’s policy announcement, raising its benchmark overnight rate by 75 basis points to 3.25% and signalling its continued selling of bonds as part of quantitative tightening. The actions were in line with financial market expectations and move Canadian monetary policy into a…
E-sight August 31: Canada delivers strong growth in Q2 before sharp slowdown in second half of 2022
The Canadian economy grew by an annualized 3.3 per cent in Q2 2022 – a strong gain but short of financial market expectations for an increase of 4.4 per cent. The details of the report were robust. Consumer expenditure was remarkably strong, with an increase of 9.7 per cent that Statistics Canada attributed to travel and…
E-sight August 5: Canada sheds jobs for a second consecutive month, US payrolls surge, BoC and Fed to keep hiking
The Canadian economic expansion is losing momentum and the weakness has started showing up in the labour market. The economy lost 30,600 net jobs in July, disappointing market expectations for an increase of 20,000 and building on a 43,200 loss in June. A decline in the labour force (i.e. fewer people looking for work) kept…
E-sight Weekly August 2: When a two-quarter contraction is not a U.S. recession
If the US economy goes into recession, it will pull Canada into one as well. So, the current debate about whether the US economy fell into recession in the first half of this year is an important one. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that US real GDP contracted 0.9 per cent annualized in the…
E-Sight Weekly July 29: Canada’s Economy at a standstill? GDP sees no growth in May 2022
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) remained flat in May, posting 0.0% growth, following a 0.3% increase in April 2022. While growth in services-producing industries were up 0.4%, this was offset by a 1% decline in goods-producing industries. Among services-producing industries, transportation and warehousing was up 1.9%, its fourth consecutive monthly increase. This was supported…
E-sight July 24: Canadians keep on spending despite inflation shock
The latest retail sales report showed the impact of high inflation, but also the willingness of Canadian consumers to keep on spending. The value of retail sales rose 2.2 per cent in May, with broad-based gains in 8-of-11 major subsectors. In other words, a strong report. With inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI),…
E-Sight Weekly: E-Sight July 20: Bank of Canada Spikes Rates, Housing Contraction Begins, Watch for Inflation above 8% this Week
As discussed in two E-sights last week, the Bank of Canada delivered a surprise one full percentage point interest rate hike, lifting the overnight rate to 2.50 per cent and signaling more to come. The Bank’s aggressive tightening has inverted the Canadian yield curve, sending a potential recession signal but time will tell if that…
E-Sight July 20: Canadian Inflation Climbs Above 8%
Canadian inflation climbed above 8% in June, but the 8.1% headline was slightly below market expectations for an 8.4% reading. Gasoline was the single greatest contributor to the acceleration, increasing 6.2% in the month and up a whopping 54.6% year-over-year. Statistics Canada reported that traveller accommodation, air transportation and food at restaurants contributed to the…
E-Sight July 13: The Bank of Canada Hikes a Full Percentage Point in July to Battle Inflation and Re-Anchor Inflation Expectations
This is a quick commentary after the press release of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision came across the news wires. Further analysis will come after the press conference if warranted, but here is a quick take, because I am getting a lot of immediate questions. If anyone wondered whether the Bank of Canada took its…
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Alexander Economic Views 