This morning, we released an updated Deloitte Quarterly Economic Forecast. Recent events have led us to adopt the view that a recession is coming in Canada. After posting strong growth in the first half of this year of above 3% annualized,… Read More ›
Alexander Economic Views
E-sight September 7: Bank of Canada hikes 75 basis points and signals more to come
The Bank of Canada delivered yet another dramatically large interest rate hike at today’s policy announcement, raising its benchmark overnight rate by 75 basis points to 3.25% and signalling its continued selling of bonds as part of quantitative tightening. The… Read More ›
E-sight August 31: Canada delivers strong growth in Q2 before sharp slowdown in second half of 2022
The Canadian economy grew by an annualized 3.3 per cent in Q2 2022 – a strong gain but short of financial market expectations for an increase of 4.4 per cent. The details of the report were robust. Consumer expenditure was remarkably… Read More ›
E-sight August 5: Canada sheds jobs for a second consecutive month, US payrolls surge, BoC and Fed to keep hiking
The Canadian economic expansion is losing momentum and the weakness has started showing up in the labour market. The economy lost 30,600 net jobs in July, disappointing market expectations for an increase of 20,000 and building on a 43,200 loss… Read More ›
E-sight Weekly August 2: When a two-quarter contraction is not a U.S. recession
If the US economy goes into recession, it will pull Canada into one as well. So, the current debate about whether the US economy fell into recession in the first half of this year is an important one. The Bureau… Read More ›
E-Sight Weekly July 29: Canada’s Economy at a standstill? GDP sees no growth in May 2022
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) remained flat in May, posting 0.0% growth, following a 0.3% increase in April 2022. While growth in services-producing industries were up 0.4%, this was offset by a 1% decline in goods-producing industries. Among services-producing… Read More ›
E-sight July 24: Canadians keep on spending despite inflation shock
The latest retail sales report showed the impact of high inflation, but also the willingness of Canadian consumers to keep on spending. The value of retail sales rose 2.2 per cent in May, with broad-based gains in 8-of-11 major subsectors. In… Read More ›
E-Sight July 20: Canadian Inflation Climbs Above 8%
Canadian inflation climbed above 8% in June, but the 8.1% headline was slightly below market expectations for an 8.4% reading. Gasoline was the single greatest contributor to the acceleration, increasing 6.2% in the month and up a whopping 54.6% year-over-year…. Read More ›
E-Sight Weekly: E-Sight July 20: Bank of Canada Spikes Rates, Housing Contraction Begins, Watch for Inflation above 8% this Week
As discussed in two E-sights last week, the Bank of Canada delivered a surprise one full percentage point interest rate hike, lifting the overnight rate to 2.50 per cent and signaling more to come. The Bank’s aggressive tightening has inverted… Read More ›
E-Sight July 13: A Deeper Dive into BoC Decision for a Big, Bold Hike
As promised from my last note, this is commentary is add-on from my initial take. No real changes, just interesting observations from MPR. The Bank of Canada surprised markets by delivering a one percentage point increase in the overnight rate… Read More ›
Alexander Economic Views 