This morning, we released an updated Deloitte Quarterly Economic Forecast. Recent events have led us to adopt the view that a recession is coming in Canada. After posting strong growth in the first half of this year of above 3% annualized,… Read More ›
Economic Outlook
E-sight August 31: Canada delivers strong growth in Q2 before sharp slowdown in second half of 2022
The Canadian economy grew by an annualized 3.3 per cent in Q2 2022 – a strong gain but short of financial market expectations for an increase of 4.4 per cent. The details of the report were robust. Consumer expenditure was remarkably… Read More ›
E-sight August 5: Canada sheds jobs for a second consecutive month, US payrolls surge, BoC and Fed to keep hiking
The Canadian economic expansion is losing momentum and the weakness has started showing up in the labour market. The economy lost 30,600 net jobs in July, disappointing market expectations for an increase of 20,000 and building on a 43,200 loss… Read More ›
E-sight Weekly August 2: When a two-quarter contraction is not a U.S. recession
If the US economy goes into recession, it will pull Canada into one as well. So, the current debate about whether the US economy fell into recession in the first half of this year is an important one. The Bureau… Read More ›
E-Sight Weekly July 29: Canada’s Economy at a standstill? GDP sees no growth in May 2022
Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) remained flat in May, posting 0.0% growth, following a 0.3% increase in April 2022. While growth in services-producing industries were up 0.4%, this was offset by a 1% decline in goods-producing industries. Among services-producing… Read More ›
E-Sight Weekly: E-Sight July 20: Bank of Canada Spikes Rates, Housing Contraction Begins, Watch for Inflation above 8% this Week
As discussed in two E-sights last week, the Bank of Canada delivered a surprise one full percentage point interest rate hike, lifting the overnight rate to 2.50 per cent and signaling more to come. The Bank’s aggressive tightening has inverted… Read More ›
E-Sight July 13: The Bank of Canada Hikes a Full Percentage Point in July to Battle Inflation and Re-Anchor Inflation Expectations
This is a quick commentary after the press release of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision came across the news wires. Further analysis will come after the press conference if warranted, but here is a quick take, because I am getting… Read More ›
E-Sight July 13: A Deeper Dive into BoC Decision for a Big, Bold Hike
As promised from my last note, this is commentary is add-on from my initial take. No real changes, just interesting observations from MPR. The Bank of Canada surprised markets by delivering a one percentage point increase in the overnight rate… Read More ›
E-Sight July 11: Waiting on Macklem
All eyes are on this Wednesday’s Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement. Financial markets have priced in a 75 basis point increase in the benchmark overnight rate, matching the last move by the US Federal Reserve as both central banks… Read More ›
E-Sight July 4: Canadian economy solid in April weakens in May, Deloitte economic outlook
The Canadian economy grew by 0.3 per cent in April with growth in 13-of-20 industries. Goods-producing firms increased 0.9 per cent, outpacing a slim 0.1 per cent gain by services. While the April gain was solid, Statistics Canada’s flash estimate… Read More ›
Alexander Economic Views 